Russian President Vladimir Putin said he will decide later Monday whether to recognize the independence of separatist regions in eastern Ukraine, a move that would ratchet up tensions with the West amid fears that Moscow could launch an invasion of Ukraine imminently.
The carefully orchestrated, pre-recorded meeting of the presidential Security Council came amid a spike in skirmishes in those regions that Western powers believe Russia could use as a pretext for an attack on the western-looking democracy that has defied Moscow’s attempts to pull it back into its orbit. At the meeting, a stream of top Russian officials argued for recognizing the independence of the separatist regions, though some suggested Putin didn’t have to do it immediately.
With an estimated 150,000 Russian troops massed on three sides of Ukraine, the U.S. has warned that Moscow has already decided to invade. Still, the American and Russian presidents tentatively agreed to a possible meeting in a last-ditch effort to avoid war.
If Russia moves in, the meeting will be off, but the prospect of a face-to-face summit resuscitated hopes that diplomacy could prevent a devastating conflict, which would result in massive casualties and huge economic damage across Europe, which is heavily dependent on Russian energy.
Even as the diplomatic efforts inched forward, potential flashpoints multiplied. Sustained shelling continued Monday in Ukraine’s east. Unusually, Russia said it had fended off an “incursion” from Ukraine — which Ukrainian officials denied. And Russia decided to prolong military drills in Belarus, which could offer a staging ground for an attack on the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv.
If Russia recognizes the separatist regions, that will fuel tensions further since Moscow could use the move to openly send its troops and weapons there. Until now, Ukraine and the West have accused Russia of supporting the separatists, but Moscow has denied that, saying that Russians who fought there were volunteers.
At Monday’s meeting, Putin’s top defense and security officials paraded before him one by one to outline arguments for recognizing the regions as independent to protect civilians there. At one point, one slipped up and said he favored including them as part of Russian territory — but Putin quickly corrected him.
Some suggested, however, that Russia give the West a few more days to press Ukraine to fulfill a peace agreement that halted major fighting in 2015.
Earlier Monday, leaders of the regions released televised statements pleading with Putin to recognize them and sign treaties that would allow for military aid to protect them from what they described as an ongoing Ukrainian military offensive. Russia’s lower house of parliament made the same plea last week.
Ukrainian authorities deny launching an offensive and accuse Russia of provocation.
Russia similarly recognized two breakaway regions of the former Soviet republic of Georgia in 2008 after a brief war, and expanded its military presence in both South Ossetia and Abkhazia on the Black Sea.
But the Kremlin initially signaled its reluctance to recognize the regions in eastern Ukraine, arguing that would effectively shatter the peace deal, which marked a major diplomatic coup for Moscow, requiring Ukrainian authorities to offer a broad self-rule to the rebel regions.
The deal was resented by many in Ukraine who saw it as a capitulation, a blow to the country’s integrity and a betrayal of national interests. Putin and other officials argued Monday that Ukrainian authorities have shown no appetite for implementing it.
With the prospect of war looming, French President Emmanuel Macron scrambled to broker a meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and Putin, who denies he has any plans to attack Ukraine.
Russia says it wants Western guarantees that NATO won’t allow Ukraine and other former Soviet countries to join as members — and Putin said Monday a simple moratorium on Ukraine’s accession wouldn’t be enough. Moscow has also demanded the alliance halt weapons deployments to Ukraine and roll back its forces from Eastern Europe — demands flatly rejected by the West.
Macron’s office said both leaders had “accepted the principle of such a summit,” to be followed by a broader meeting that would include other “relevant stakeholders to discuss security and strategic stability in Europe.”
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