Apr 28, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Lakers forward Anthony Davis (3) celebrates after a dunk over Memphis Grizzlies forward Jaren Jackson Jr. (not pictured) in the second half of game six of the 2023 NBA playoffs at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
The most hyped second round matchup for NBA fans gets started on Tuesday when the Lakers and Warriors meet with two of the best players in NBA history going toe-to-toe once again.
Stephen Curry scored an NBA record for points in a Game 7 by dropping 50 on the Kings on Sunday to eliminate Sacramento, setting up an epic series against the surging LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers, who beat the Grizzlies in six games.
James and Anthony Davis have LA humming on defense, but face a far tougher test in the Warriors and Curry.
How should we target Game 1 with the Warriors on short rest? Let’s check out some numbers of how teams perform off of a Game 7 and find a best bet:
Lakers vs. Warriors odds, spread and total
Lakers vs. Warriors prediction and pick
Historically, the team that is off of a Game 7 has struggled in Game 1 of the following series. The team in the aforementioned situation is 33-51 straight up in the game after winning Game 7, per Raheem Palmer of The Ringer.
That’s notable, but I’m going to look elsewhere for betting this game, as I like the under quite a bit.
While the Warriors and Kings were playing games with totals in the high 230’s, the pace dictated that as the Kings tried to run as fast as possible on the court. The Lakers are going to want to play slow and grind this game to a halt, leaning on its stout defense to keep a lid on the Warriors explosive offense.
If this game becomes a half court battle that allows the Lakers to get its defense set, this game can become quite ugly. Anthony Davis has been a terror on defense and the drop-off when he sits is apparent. Check out these numbers I tweeted out before Game 6 of the Lakers-Grizzlies series, which the Lakers won by 40.
More…
Grizzlies shooting 64% at rim when AD is off floor, 56% when he is on.
Memphis would be wise to stagger Ja minutes when AD is out to get more rim pressure. https://t.co/Ho0TNBRV9n
— Reed Wallach (@ReedWallach) April 27, 2023
The Warriors didn’t shoot so well in the first round, ninth in effective field goal percentage, but they also held the best regular season offense in the league Kings to the 14th eFG% mark, the defense is better than it gets credit for.
Not to mention, the Lakers are far worse at spacing the floor and scoring efficiently, 11th in first round eFG%. For reference, in the regular season, the Kings were second in eFG%, the Lakers were 18th.
The rub here is that the Warriors may be coming down from an intense Game 7 where its star guard scored 50 points. While I think GSW may not have a strong offensive game due to some tired legs and the fact that the Lakers defense is elite, I don’t trust LA’s middling offense to show up on the road against a revitalized Chase Center crowd.
Take the under in a series that may be far uglier than expected from an offensive stand point.
Track all of Reed’s bets at Betstamp HERE!
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.